{"id":718,"date":"2025-11-08T06:52:49","date_gmt":"2025-11-08T06:52:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/?p=718"},"modified":"2025-11-08T06:52:51","modified_gmt":"2025-11-08T06:52:51","slug":"%e5%88%9d%e6%8e%a2%e8%b2%9d%e8%91%89%e6%96%af%e5%ae%9a%e7%90%86%e8%a9%95%e4%bc%b0%e5%8f%b0%e7%81%a3%e5%b7%a5%e6%a5%ad%e5%8d%80%e6%b4%aa%e6%b0%b4%e6%90%8d%e5%a4%b1%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%af%e8%a1%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/?p=718","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u521d\u63a2\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u8a55\u4f30\u53f0\u7063\u5de5\u696d\u5340\u6d2a\u6c34\u640d\u5931\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><br><br><br>\u00a0\u96a8\u8457\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u6d2a\u6c34\u707d\u5bb3\u767c\u751f\u7684\u983b\u7387\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5728\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u98b1\u98a8\u8207\u6975\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u6d2a\u6c34\u707d\u5bb3\u5e36\u7d66\u793e\u6703\u6975\u5927\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u50f9\u503c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5de5\u696d\u5340\uff0c\u707d\u640d\u8cc7\u6599\u591a\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5373\u523b\u53d6\u5f97\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u57fa\u65bc\u5546\u696d\u8003\u91cf\u7121\u6cd5\u516c\u958b\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u8a55\u4f30\u6d2a\u6c34\u640d\u5931\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u65bc\u8cc7\u6599\u4e0d\u8db3\u7684\u67b6\u8a2d\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e09\u7a2e\u57fa\u65bc\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u5b9a\u7406(Bayes Theorem)\u7684\u6d2a\u707d\u640d\u5931\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f(1)\u6df9\u6c34\u640d\u5931\u66f2\u7dda\u6a21\u578b(Stage-Damage Function, SDF)\u3001(2) \u591a\u56e0\u5b50\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u578b(Multivariable Bayesian regression, BR)\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca(3)\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u7db2\u8def\u6a21\u578b(Bayesian Networks, BN)\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u516c\u958b\u5bb9\u6613\u53d6\u5f97\u8207\u5047\u8a2d\u4e4b\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u5feb\u901f\u9032\u884c\u707d\u524d\u6d2a\u6c34\u640d\u5931\u4e4b\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u4e26\u5c07\u6b64\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4f5c\u70ba\u707d\u5bb3\u898f\u6a21\u5224\u65b7\u8207\u6551\u707d\u8cc7\u6e90\u914d\u7f6e\u4f9d\u64da\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e09\u7a2e\u6a21\u578b\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u55ae\u8b8a\u6578\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u6d2a\u6c34\u640d\u5bb3\u7387\u662f\u6c34\u6df1\u7684\u51fd\u6578\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7a2e\u662f\u8003\u616e\u4e0d\u540c\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u5b50\u7684\u591a\u8b8a\u6578\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u500b\u5247\u662f\u57fa\u65bc\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u63a8\u8ad6(inference)\u5efa\u7acb\u7684BN\u7684\u6d2a\u707d\u640d\u5931\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u5b50\u8207\u5f71\u97ff\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2(casual effect)\u4ee5\u6709\u5411\u7121\u74b0\u5716(directed acyclic graph, DAG)\u7d50\u69cb\u8868\u793a\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u524d\u5169\u7a2e\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6b0a\u91cd\u56e0\u5b50\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u7b2c\u4e09\u500bBN\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\u9593\u7684\u4f9d\u9644\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u900f\u904e\u8c9d\u8449\u65af\u5b9a\u7406\u4e2d\u5148\u9a57\u77e5\u8b58(prior knowledge)\u8207\u5f8c\u9a57\u689d\u4ef6(posterior probability) \u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u6a5f\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u4e26\u53d6\u5176\u6700\u5927\u53ef\u80fd\u4e4b\u7d50\u679c\u4f86\u8a66\u7528\u3002\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u9996\u5148\u4f7f\u7528\u5fb7\u570bGFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences\u7dad\u8b77\u7684 HOWAS21 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