{"id":45,"date":"2024-07-30T08:45:59","date_gmt":"2024-07-30T08:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/test-2.nothing-creative.com\/?p=45"},"modified":"2024-08-09T06:56:31","modified_gmt":"2024-08-09T06:56:31","slug":"bayesian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/?p=45","title":{"rendered":"Bayesian\u5feb\u901f\u6df9\u6c34\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u8a55\u4f30"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u6839\u64daInternational Flood Initiative\u5206\u6790\u81ea1992\u5e74\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u8207\u6c34\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u707d\u5bb3\u5f9e\u6bcf\u5e7450\u591a\u4ef6\u589e\u52a0\u5230150\u591a\u4ef6\u3002\u6bcf\u5e74\u7ea6\u670925,000\u4eba\u56e0\u6b64\u55aa\u751f\uff0c5\u5104\u591a\u4eba\u751f\u6d3b\u8ca1\u7522\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u8d85\u904e600\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u9019\u9084\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u6587\u5316\u8cc7\u7522\u548c\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u640d\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6309\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u707d\u5bb3\u98a8\u96aa\u8abf\u9069\u5e73\u53f0\u8cc7\u6599\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u81ea1958\u5e74\u8d77\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u6bcf\u4e00\u5e74\u7686\u6703\u767c\u751f\u5929\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u5c11\u4e00\u5e74\u767c\u751f\u4e00\u6b21\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u6700\u591a\u4e00\u5e74\u767c\u751f14\u5834\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u9ad8\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u767c\u751f\u5929\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\u7684\u6b21\u6578\u6709\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5f9e1958\u81f31987\u5e74\u768430\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e74\u5e73\u57474.1\u6b21\u7684\u5929\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\u6b21\u6578\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u5f9e1988\u81f32017\u5e74\u768430\u5e74\u671f\u9593\u6bcf\u5e747.8\u6b21\u3002 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\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u6df9\u6c34\u6df1\u5ea6-\u640d\u5931\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5047\u8a2d\u8207\u53c3\u6578\u95dc\u4fc2\u5716<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5Bayesian\u7406\u8ad6\u70ba\u67b6\u69cb\uff0c\u767c\u5c55\u5feb\u901f\u6df9\u6c34\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5982\u4e0a\u5716\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u9996\u5148\u900f\u904e\u5305\u62ec\u964d\u96e8\u91cf\u3001\u6df9\u6c34\u6c34\u6df1\uff0c\u53ca\u5730\u8868\u5761\u5ea6\u7b49\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u5b50\u8207\u640d\u5931(rloss)\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u5efa\u7acb\uff0c\u7e7c\u800c\u91dd\u5c0d\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u9810\u5831\u8cc7\u6599\u9032\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u4e4b\u5feb\u901f\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u5354\u52a9\u6551\u707d\u61c9\u8b8a\u7b56\u7565\u4e4b\u53c3\u8003\u3002 \u611f\u8b1dGFZ\u5fb7\u570b\u5730\u7403\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences)\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e4bHOWAS21\u6df9\u6c34\u640d\u5931\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u8a72\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u4e4b\u707d\u640d\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a2\u8a0e\u5728\u76f8\u540c\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u5b50\u4e0b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec(1)\u6df9\u6c34\u6df1\u5ea6-\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u66f2\u7dda(depth-damage curve);(2)Bayesian \u56de\u6b78\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f(Bayesian regression);\u4ee5\u53ca(3)Bayesian \u7db2\u8def\uff08Bayesian Network)\u4e09\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5f0f \u6e2c\u8a66\u4e0d\u540c\u707d\u640d\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u5728\u6df9\u6c34\u9020\u6210\u5de5\u696d\u5340\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u8868\u73fe\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"368\" height=\"266\" src=\"http:\/\/test3.nothing-creative.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BAY1-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-503\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BAY1-1.png 368w, https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/BAY1-1-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 368px) 100vw, 368px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u521d\u6b65\u53c3\u6578\u6aa2\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5716\u70ba\u4f8b\u5c31\u662f\u4ee5\u7b2c\u4e00\u7a2e\u65b9\u5f0f\u5047\u8a2d\u707d\u640d(rloss)\u662f\u50c5\u8207\u6df9\u6c34\u6df1\u5ea6\u6709\u95dc\u4e4b\u65b9\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u5728\u5229\u7528\u9810\u5148\u8a2d\u5b9a\u597d\u4e4b\u53c3\u6578\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u6df9\u6c34\u6df1\u5ea6-\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0frloss=\u03b8\ud835\udc51+\u03b5&nbsp;\u7522\u51fa\u6578\u7b46\u865b\u64ec\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\u518d\u900f\u904e\u6b64\u8cc7\u6599\u4ee5Bayesian\u63a8\u8ad6\u627e\u51fa\u5c0d\u61c9\u4e4b\u03b8\u8207\u03b5\u5169\u500b\u53c3\u6578\u3002\u5f9e\u4e0a\u5716\u4e2d\u53ef\u77e5\u6a5f\u7387\u5bc6\u5ea6\u6700\u9ad8\u8207\u771f\u503c\u91cd\u758a\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b49\u660e\u4e86Bayesian\u5728\u63a8\u8ad6\u707d\u640d\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e2d\u53c3\u6578\u4e4b\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u672c\u8a08\u756b\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u4ee5Bayesian\u7d71\u8a08\u63a8\u8ad6\u6a21\u578b\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c 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network)\u4e4b\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u63a8\u4f30\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":503,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-disaster-risk-assessment"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=45"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":504,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45\/revisions\/504"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/503"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=45"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=45"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thinklab.lab.nycu.edu.tw\/zh\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=45"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}